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MelodicRose(OD)

Weather Nerd Topic - Tropical Storm Florence and More!

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It's been a little while since I've done these and I kind of dropped the ball for Tropical Storm Gordon, but with the Atlantic ramping up in activity, I figured I'd give my two cents again. Keep in mind that this isn't coming out of my rear - I'm currently a senior in Atmospheric Sciences (concentration in Weather Forecasting) and have a massive interest in emergency management in significant weather prone areas. Tropical weather is my love, it's a little unhealthy, but furthermore, I love to make sure people are aware of any impacts and can be kept safe. There is a never-ending learning situation in Meteorology, so I'll share what my professors have briefed us with and my own personal knowledge.

 

Tropical Storm Florence

Current Data (as of 5pm AST):

Max Winds: 70mph (Tropical Storm)

Min Pressure: 989 mb

Movement: W at 5mph

 

Current Impacts:

There are currently no major impacts to be expected as this system is not interacting with land. Earlier model runs had this storm moving over Bermuda, but this has since been removed from the model tracks. Since the storm is not interacting with land, there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but there is a concern for high surf and swells along the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. I wouldn't get into the water along the east coast - rip currents are going to be a major threat.

 

Future Impacts:

This is where the nitty gritty is going to happen. Earlier this week, Florence had made it to hurricane strength but had been impacted by strong upper-level wind shear (change of wind direction and wind speed with height) and effects from dry air. This activity almost killed the storm, but Florence was strong (lol)! As of now, Florence is recovering slowly from these effects and is moving into warmer waters - this will help with rapid re-intensification, which is starting to show through the convection of the outer bands (thin clouds in the outer bands with persistent deep convection near the center of circulation). Florence is forecast to intensify to a hurricane late tonight or tomorrow morning. This rapid intensification is expected to continue into becoming a major hurricane (category 3+) in the matter of 36-48 hours. Current models have a peak intensity of 125 knots (144mph), which is a category 4 major hurricane. The movement of Florence is very slow.. almost painfully so. The direction of the track is based off of two high pressure systems; one to the northeast and one to the southwest. There is a blocking ridge expected to form off of Bermuda which will help accelerate Florence and keep the track of impact closer to the States. The exact landfall point is still extremely uncertain as it's still a week out and there are still developing ridges that need to be watched to determine the exact path, but the likelihood of a direct impact to the U.S. coast is becoming more and more certain with each run of the models. It's too soon to start giving out numbers in terms of timing, location, and strength, but with the current forecast, I'd rather people be safe than sorry. People along the U.S. east coast should have hurricane plans in place (this includes Florida through North Carolina primarily, for now) and begin carefully watching the progress of this system through the next few days. 

 

I'm watching this storm very carefully as I, personally, am living in North Carolina and my family is closer to the coast than I am. It's best to not compare this storm to past storms, every storm is different. If I hear comparisons of Florence to Hugo or Sandy, I'mma be upsetti.

 

Tropical Storm Helene

Current Data (as of 8pm AST):

Max Winds: 60mph

Min Pressure: 998 mb

Movement: W at 13mph

 

Current Impacts:

Currently, Tropical Storm Helene is located SE of the Cabo Verde Islands. There are hurricane watches in effect for the Cabo Verde islands, as well as tropical storm warnings. Total rain accumulations for these islands are anticipated to be around 3-5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude in a short period of time can create flash flooding.

 

Future Impacts:

Tropical Storm Helene is anticipated to strengthen to hurricane status in the coming days. The general track is anticipated to continue to the west, with intensification occurring along this path. According to models, the environment that Helene will be located in after 72h will ultimately weaken the system significantly. The motion is anticipated to continue moving W/WNW for the next 3+ days before turning NW due to a subtropical ridge. The model guidance does not expect any interaction with land.

 

Tropical Storm Isaac

Current Data (as of 5pm AST):

Max Winds: 40mph

Min Pressure: 1005 mb

Movement: W at 7mph

 

Current Impacts:

There are currently no watches or warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Isaac and no hazards affecting land.

 

Future Impacts:

Currently, Tropical Storm Isaac is a low-grade tropical storm. Strengthening to hurricane status is expected to occur by Monday. It is extremely far out to say anything final, but this is a storm that Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic should begin keeping an eye on early this week. The track is generally westward with a northern tilt beginning at the end of the 5-d forecast period.

 

 

**As always, if you have any questions, I am always happy to answer them. I enjoy these little weather briefings and I like sharing my knowledge with people so they are better prepared. Stay safe <3**

 

Tags: @TypeReaL(OD) @Aerineth(OD)

 

 

Florence_9_8.png

Helene_9_8.png

Isaac_9_8.png

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Yay I love hurricane season bring it On 😄 cheers to you for typing this up Kait !

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wut is science?

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This is why Blizzard should've nerfed Windy Druids.

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Ill check my phones backup storage for last hurricane it truly did feel like a windy druid

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I hope everybody keeps safe and dry!

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I took a lab science class on meteorology, it was a very fun class and really liked learning about it,

 

Thanks for posting this topic its quite unique

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image.png

If you don't evac from the coastline, natural selection may occur.

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either that or you could be up for a Darwin award.

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1 hour ago, Badboi(OD) said:

image.png

If you don't evac from the coastline, natural selection may occur.

your not coming boating with me I take it then

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Overdosed - A Clan so pimp it has its own meteorologist.

Thanks for the update Rose! As a Canadian I always like to keep abreast of how my American neighbors are going to end up suffering next.

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What a morning to wake up to a @Dave(OD) home run. All I know that river I took Frank down "they said" would only rise 4 feet. Ill get a picture later today, it might actually hit my basement which is +17 feet. Its currently at least up 12...

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